Diversion programs are often seen as a hopeful alternative to incarceration, especially for nonviolent offenders, but determining who is most likely to succeed in these programs remains a challenge. At 1st Step Male Diversion Program, we’ve been asking an important question since launching in 2016: Can we better predict who will benefit from a structured, court-ordered habilitation program?

In our latest research paper, Predicting the Unpredictable: Assessing Diversion Program Success for Criminal Defense Attorneys, our team explores the data behind that question. Drawing on nearly a decade of firsthand experience and outcomes, we evaluate the three key assessments used at intake—ORAS (Ohio Risk Assessment System), the ACE (Adverse Childhood Experiences) Questionnaire, and a clinical biopsychosocial interview—to determine their effectiveness in predicting program success.

The findings offer critical insight for defense attorneys, judges, and diversion program advocates:

• Moderate-risk clients performed best. Contrary to expectations, participants categorized as “Moderate Risk” by ORAS had the highest predicted success rates, not the lowest-risk group.
• Trauma history is meaningful, but not predictive alone. While ACE scores provide essential context, they don’t independently determine outcomes.
• Engagement and support systems matter most. The most consistent predictors of success came from qualitative clinical reviews. Clients who accepted help, maintained routines, and had meaningful family or peer support were more likely to succeed.



This paper underscores what many in the criminal justice reform community already know: success in diversion programs isn’t about a single number. It’s about the whole person. And when we take the time to look beyond the file, at the story, the support, and the individual's willingness to change, we improve the odds of lasting impact.

We invite you to read the full paper and consider how this research can inform your support for diversion as a viable, effective solution in our justice system.